WDW Daily Recap: Friday, May 22
Mixed results. The model got some parks right but missed on others. Here's how our WTI predictions compared to what actually happened at Walt Disney World on Friday, May 22.
Park-by-Park: Predicted vs. Observed WTI
| Park | Predicted | Observed | Delta | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Kingdom | 20.0 | 14.2 | -5.8 | Missed |
| EPCOT | 22.5 | 17.2 | -5.3 | Missed |
| Hollywood Studios | 29.8 | 20.3 | -9.5 | Missed |
| Animal Kingdom | 37.9 | 25.3 | -12.6 | Big miss |
Overall MAE: 8.3 — the average absolute error across all four parks.
Spotlight: Animal Kingdom
Animal Kingdom was the biggest miss of the day. We predicted a WTI of 37.9, but the observed value came in at 25.3 — 12.6 points lighter than expected.
The error was concentrated in one attraction: Na'vi River (MAE 61.3), which drove most of the park-level miss.
Attraction-Level Breakdown
| Attraction | Predicted | Actual | Error | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Na'vi River | 88 | 26 | -61.3 | 61.3 |
| Flight of Passage | 55 | 43 | -12.0 | 16.0 |
| Kilimanjaro Safaris | 29 | 20 | -8.7 | 10.7 |
| Everest Single Rider | 15 | 23 | +7.9 | 10.2 |
| Expedition Everest | 22 | 19 | -3.3 | 7.9 |
| Zootopia | 17 | 9 | -7.5 | 7.5 |
| Kali River Rapids | 26 | 29 | +3.0 | 7.4 |
| Adventurers Outpost | 19 | 21 | +1.7 | 4.4 |
Detected Closures / Downtime at Animal Kingdom
These rides had gaps of 60+ minutes in posted wait times during operating hours, suggesting temporary closures or extended downtime:
- Expedition Everest — no data from 12:00 PM to 2:11 PM (131 min gap)
- Everest Single Rider — no data from 7:47 AM to 9:58 AM (131 min gap)
- Character Landing — no data from 12:10 PM to 1:50 PM (100 min gap)
Get daily WTI forecasts for all 12 parks. Just type /today or /crowd in the Discord — free during beta.
📡 Data Sources — Our models are trained on data from TouringPlans, Queue-Times, and Thrill-Data. The models, techniques, and predictions are entirely our own.