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WDW Daily Recap: Sunday, May 17

Mixed results. The model got some parks right but missed on others. Here's how our WTI predictions compared to what actually happened at Walt Disney World on Sunday, May 17.

Park-by-Park: Predicted vs. Observed WTI

Park Predicted Observed Delta Verdict
Magic Kingdom 20.4 13.5 -6.9 Missed
EPCOT 23.7 20.1 -3.6 Close
Hollywood Studios 29.7 19.6 -10.1 Big miss
Animal Kingdom 39.8 27.9 -11.9 Big miss

Overall MAE: 8.1 — the average absolute error across all four parks.

Spotlight: Animal Kingdom

Animal Kingdom was the biggest miss of the day. We predicted a WTI of 39.8, but the observed value came in at 27.9 — 11.9 points lighter than expected.

The error was concentrated in one attraction: Na'vi River (MAE 62.0), which drove most of the park-level miss.

Attraction-Level Breakdown

Attraction Predicted Actual Error MAE
Na'vi River 88 26 -62.0 62.0
Kilimanjaro Safaris 29 20 -9.6 12.1
Flight of Passage 55 65 +9.8 11.4
Kali River Rapids 26 19 -6.2 8.5
Expedition Everest 23 16 -7.2 7.5
Adventurers Outpost 16 22 +6.8 7.3
Zootopia 16 9 -6.9 6.9
Gorilla Falls Trail 5 6 +0.6 0.6

Detected Closures / Downtime at Animal Kingdom

These rides had gaps of 60+ minutes in posted wait times during operating hours, suggesting temporary closures or extended downtime:

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📡 Data Sources — Our models are trained on data from TouringPlans, Queue-Times, and Thrill-Data. The models, techniques, and predictions are entirely our own.

Generated by the Theme Park Crowd Report team — data-driven crowd forecasts for 12 parks across Walt Disney World, Universal Orlando, and more.