WDW Daily Recap: Saturday, May 16
Solid day overall. Most parks tracked well, with one outlier pulling the average. Here's how our WTI predictions compared to what actually happened at Walt Disney World on Saturday, May 16.
Park-by-Park: Predicted vs. Observed WTI
| Park | Predicted | Observed | Delta | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Kingdom | 21.5 | 15.4 | -6.1 | Missed |
| EPCOT | 23.5 | 20.8 | -2.7 | Close |
| Hollywood Studios | 29.6 | 21.5 | -8.1 | Missed |
| Animal Kingdom | 38.7 | 34.2 | -4.5 | Close |
Overall MAE: 5.3 — the average absolute error across all four parks.
Spotlight: Hollywood Studios
Hollywood Studios was the biggest miss of the day. We predicted a WTI of 29.6, but the observed value came in at 21.5 — 8.1 points lighter than expected.
The error was distributed across multiple attractions, with no single ride dominating the miss.
Attraction-Level Breakdown
| Attraction | Predicted | Actual | Error | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Star Tours | 26 | 6 | -19.6 | 19.6 |
| Millennium Falcon | 41 | 23 | -17.8 | 18.1 |
| Runaway Railway | 38 | 30 | -8.6 | 16.1 |
| Toy Story Mania! | 41 | 31 | -9.8 | 10.7 |
| Alien Saucers | 28 | 18 | -9.8 | 10.7 |
| Tower of Terror | 34 | 30 | -4.4 | 10.3 |
| Slinky Dog | 48 | 38 | -9.7 | 10.0 |
| Rise of Resistance | 35 | 38 | +2.8 | 9.7 |
Detected Closures / Downtime at Hollywood Studios
These rides had gaps of 60+ minutes in posted wait times during operating hours, suggesting temporary closures or extended downtime:
- Rise of the Resistance Single — no data from 6:00 PM to 7:00 PM (60 min gap)
Get daily WTI forecasts for all 12 parks. Just type /today or /crowd in the Discord — free during beta.
📡 Data Sources — Our models are trained on data from TouringPlans, Queue-Times, and Thrill-Data. The models, techniques, and predictions are entirely our own.