WDW Daily Recap: Sunday, May 3
Excellent day for the model — predictions were tight across all four parks. Here's how our WTI predictions compared to what actually happened at Walt Disney World on Sunday, May 3.
Park-by-Park: Predicted vs. Observed WTI
| Park | Predicted | Observed | Delta | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic Kingdom | 20.5 | 18.6 | -1.9 | Nailed it |
| EPCOT | 24.0 | 23.1 | -0.9 | Nailed it |
| Hollywood Studios | 28.5 | 28.5 | +0.0 | Nailed it |
| Animal Kingdom | 39.4 | 34.5 | -4.9 | Close |
Overall MAE: 1.9 — the average absolute error across all four parks.
Spotlight: Animal Kingdom
Animal Kingdom was the biggest miss of the day. We predicted a WTI of 39.4, but the observed value came in at 34.5 — 4.9 points lighter than expected.
The error was concentrated in one attraction: Na'vi River (MAE 51.7), which drove most of the park-level miss.
Attraction-Level Breakdown
| Attraction | Predicted | Actual | Error | MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Na'vi River | 87 | 35 | -51.7 | 51.7 |
| Flight of Passage | 55 | 66 | +10.7 | 13.5 |
| Kilimanjaro Safaris | 29 | 34 | +5.4 | 10.1 |
| Adventurers Outpost | 16 | 26 | +9.4 | 9.9 |
| Kali River Rapids | 26 | 24 | -2.2 | 6.9 |
| Expedition Everest | 26 | 29 | +3.4 | 5.6 |
| Zootopia | 16 | 14 | -2.6 | 4.2 |
| Gorilla Falls Trail | 5 | 5 | +0.4 | 0.4 |
Detected Closures / Downtime at Animal Kingdom
These rides had gaps of 60+ minutes in posted wait times during operating hours, suggesting temporary closures or extended downtime:
- Character Landing — no data from 12:15 PM to 1:55 PM (100 min gap)
Get daily WTI forecasts for all 12 parks. Just type /today or /crowd in the Discord — free during beta.
📡 Data Sources — Our models are trained on data from TouringPlans, Queue-Times, and Thrill-Data. The models, techniques, and predictions are entirely our own.