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WDW Daily Recap: Sunday, May 3

Excellent day for the model — predictions were tight across all four parks. Here's how our WTI predictions compared to what actually happened at Walt Disney World on Sunday, May 3.

Park-by-Park: Predicted vs. Observed WTI

Park Predicted Observed Delta Verdict
Magic Kingdom 20.5 18.6 -1.9 Nailed it
EPCOT 24.0 23.1 -0.9 Nailed it
Hollywood Studios 28.5 28.5 +0.0 Nailed it
Animal Kingdom 39.4 34.5 -4.9 Close

Overall MAE: 1.9 — the average absolute error across all four parks.

Spotlight: Animal Kingdom

Animal Kingdom was the biggest miss of the day. We predicted a WTI of 39.4, but the observed value came in at 34.5 — 4.9 points lighter than expected.

The error was concentrated in one attraction: Na'vi River (MAE 51.7), which drove most of the park-level miss.

Attraction-Level Breakdown

Attraction Predicted Actual Error MAE
Na'vi River 87 35 -51.7 51.7
Flight of Passage 55 66 +10.7 13.5
Kilimanjaro Safaris 29 34 +5.4 10.1
Adventurers Outpost 16 26 +9.4 9.9
Kali River Rapids 26 24 -2.2 6.9
Expedition Everest 26 29 +3.4 5.6
Zootopia 16 14 -2.6 4.2
Gorilla Falls Trail 5 5 +0.4 0.4

Detected Closures / Downtime at Animal Kingdom

These rides had gaps of 60+ minutes in posted wait times during operating hours, suggesting temporary closures or extended downtime:

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📡 Data Sources — Our models are trained on data from TouringPlans, Queue-Times, and Thrill-Data. The models, techniques, and predictions are entirely our own.

Generated by the Theme Park Crowd Report team — data-driven crowd forecasts for 12 parks across Walt Disney World, Universal Orlando, and more.